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Written by:
Kevin H.
With a city still smarting from the
Philadelphia Eagles loss in the NFC Championship game in January
and with the 76ers floundering in the Eastern Conference of the
NBA, as well as the struggles of the Philadelphia Flyers, the
pressure is squarely on shoulders of the Philadelphia Phillies to
bring a championship to the city.
The Phillies have the right parts assembled. It’s just the many
variables within a baseball season that can affect how a team
performs. But let’s
be realistic. The
Phillies have to make the playoffs before even thinking about a
championship run.
I have stated in past seasons that the team
must work on its offensive consistency. A successful formula for a
good offense is to have a player who can set the table at the top
of the lineup for the middle of the order to drive them in. The Phillies filled that
void last year with the emergence of Marlon Byrd. Placido Polanco also
provided solid support in the 2 spot and with Jim Thome anchoring
the heart of the lineup, the Phillies should have been pumping out
runs as often as the Braves sit atop the NL East division. Even though the team scored a total of 791 runs last season
(good for fifth in the National League), they scored most of their
runs in bunches. The
offense had a tendency to score over 10 runs on one day, and
follow that up with a weak showing in the next one or two games. It comparative to
basketball players playing a back-to-back, but the Phillies
can’t use fatigue as an excuse.
NL East pitchers like Javier Vazquez, Josh
Beckett, and Russ Ortiz dominated the Phillies batters, but so did
pitchers like Carl Pavano of the Marlins, Kevin Correria of the
Giants, and Livan Hernandez of the Expos. Not exactly big –name
pitcher there. Primarily, the hitters had trouble with driving in
runs with men in scoring position especially with 2 outs and it
cost them a bunch of games especially during the stretch last
season of 21 road games in 21 days, which was a scheduling quirk
that the team had to overcome and didn’t.
On the other side of ball is the pitching
staff. Kevin Millwood
got off to a fast start, as did most of the starters with the
exception of Brandon Duckworth.
But each pitcher had his own problems in the second half,
both mechanical and mental. Overall,
4 starters won over 11 games but all of the starters faded in
September. That must
change this year.
After a productive offseason, the Phillies
find themselves with even higher hopes for this season. The team traded for
closer, Billy Wagner from Houston, and starter, Eric Milton from
Minnesota for pitchers Brandon Duckworth and Carlos Silva
respectively. But the
Phillies were given a gift when Kevin Millwood accepted the
Phillies’ arbitration offer in late December setting up a
rotation with five solid starters.
Not only is the starting rotation solid, the bullpen was
given a makeover after the disaster of Jose Mesa and the closer by
committee. Of the
entire bullpen, Rheal Cormier was clearly the most reliable
reliever and naturally, the team let him stick around. How much of an upgrade is
Billy Wagner over Jose Mesa?
Well, if things go as planned, Phillies fans won’t have
to experience that sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs as
well as nervous breakdowns when Wagner strides out of the pen in
the ninth inning. What
a relief! There will
actually be some cheering when Wagner comes out.
As for the entire National League East
division, Florida will attempt to defend their 2003 World Series
Championship, and they will be the Phillies main competition
despite the loss of Catcher Ivan Rodriguez, First Baseman Derrick
Lee and Outfielder Juan Encarnacion. They still have a formidable pitching staff, one that has the
potential to exceed Philadelphia’s rotation. They also boast 5 solid
starters in Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, Carl Pavano, Brad
Penny, and A.J. Burnett. Unless
there is a major letdown in their rotation, their problems may
occur on offense. As
for the Atlanta Braves, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton will return as
the top starters for Atlanta and Greg Maddux still has the
opportunity to rejoin the Braves if he does not accept the Cub’s
offer. The team has
lost Gary Sheffield, but they did pick up the infamous
anti-Philly, J.D. Drew, to replace Sheffield in right field. Expect their offense to be
productive, but at a slightly slower rate than last season. But they are the Braves
and it is impossible to rule them at any given time.
Don’t expect much from the remaining two NL
East teams as Montreal lost its premier outfielder in Vladmir
Guerrero and have also lost Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. The New York Mets are
still rebuilding after the Mo Vaughn era. Tom Glavine and Al Leiter
will lead the pitching staff, but the rest of the starters remain
question marks. These
two teams should be happy just to reach the .500 mark.
Looking forward to the upcoming season, each
player has his own expectations on their individual performances. Here is a breakdown of the current roster and what they have
to do to make the offense successful:
CF Marlon Byrd ( .303 BA; 7 HR; 45 RBI; 11
SB) Despite a
dismal first couple of months where his batting average plummeted
below .200, Byrd picked it up in the second half showing everyone
why he was highly regarded by team scouts. He effectively set the
table for the power hitters to start off games and he was a
dependable in clutch situations.
Now in his sophomore season, the team is looking for the
same type of production from him this year. The only aspects of his
game he needs to work on are patience and base-stealing. If he can draw more walks
and is a threat on the base-paths, the opposing pitchers will feel
the pressure to keep him close. Another thing to look for is an increase in his home run
total which would be a bonus for the offense.
2B Placido Polanco ( .289 BA; 14 HR; 45 RBI) Considered one of the MVPs of last season, Polanco set a
career high in home runs and played great defense at second base. He was an effective number
2 hitter when he’s hot, but last year, he was a streaky hitter,
entering hot a streak a couple of weeks and a cold stretch other
weeks. He needs to work on being a more consistent hitter, which
will raise his average. A
.289 batting average is actually considered low by Polanco’s
standards and he will work to raise it this year. Overall, Polanco will
again be a solid player both offensively and defensively.
1B Jim Thome ( .266 BA; 47 HR; 131 RBI) What
more is there to say about Jim Thome? He was so good last year
that I feel bad for pointing out his only weakness. But all players need
something to work on and for Thome, It’s his strikeouts. He recorded 182 strikeouts
last year, which contributed to his low batting average, but other
than that Jim Thome has been everything the Phillies expected him
to be. Thome is all
about clutch hits and he will continue to deliver this year, but
he needs help from the rest of the lineup. 
LF Pat Burrell ( .209 BA; 21 HR; 64
RBI) No question
about it. Pat Burrell
was the biggest disappointment for the Phillies last year. Burrell was supposed to be
the man to protect Jim Thome in the lineup as the clean-up hitter,
which was supposed to create a left, right, left combination in
the middle of the order. Instead,
a meltdown occurred when Burrell got off to his horrendous start. It got so bad that he was
dropped to the 7 hole and began to play an average of three games
a week. He constantly
oscillated between batting strokes, making consistency almost
impossible. Work
ethic was not the problem though.
He began to pick it up a little in the second half, but
what Burrell really needed was time away from the game. This year, Burrell is
committed to a baseball swing and seems to be confident with it. A bounce-back season is
almost a certainty and the Phillies will try again with the L-R-L
combination. He is
the wild card for the Phils in 2004.
RF Bobby Abreu ( .300 BA; 20 HR; 101 RBI) A
solid player for the team last year, he demonstrated the type of
consistency that teams look for.
Although his batting average and home runs were below his
career average, Abreu still found a way to get the job done
through walks and clutch hits. He is looking to improve on his home run total and should put
up another solid season this year.
C Mike
Lieberthal ( .313 BA; 13
HR; 81 RBI) The
biggest surprise of last season, Lieberthal put up numbers that
were worthy of All-star consideration. His .313 batting average
were comprised mainly of singles and doubles and he finally looked
comfortable in the batters box.
It is unrealistic to expect the same type of numbers from
Lieberthal this year, but anything near the .300 range will be a
tremendous contribution. All
Lieberthal must work on is his power stroke.
3B David Bell ( .195 BA; 4 HR; 37 RBI) Bell was bothered by his
lower back for much of the season which explains his low average
and low home run total. He
is a key player in the lineup and will be anchoring the bottom of
the lineup, which struggled all of last season. Expect an average of
around .250 and 15 home runs this year and he will provide solid
defense at third base. Through
the eyes of many fans, his projected numbers don’t seem
impressive, but he has a knack for coming through in big
situations. I believe
he needs a second chance before he is written off as a
disappointment. That
said, a healthy David Bell will show Philadelphia why he is a
popular clubhouse guy.
SS Jimmy Rollins ( .263 BA; 8 HR; 62 RBI; 20 SB) A slow and steady decline is one way to
describe Rollin’s batting average over the past few seasons. There are many flaws in
his game; one is his impatience in the batters box. Another frustrating part
of his game last year was his upper cut swing that contributed to
numerous pop-ups and flyouts.
For Rollins to be most effective, he has to hit ground
balls and utilize his speed to get cheap hits, much like Marlon
Byrd. Although his
steals have also been declining, it would be best if he focused on
his approach to the batters box first before worrying about his
base-stealing. Look
for a slight improvement in his batting average, which will
reverse his declining trend.
Tomas Perez ( .265 BA; 5 HR; 33 RBI) Effective
utility player willing to play any position Larry Bowa assigns
him. He was a solid
fill- in for the injured David Bell and Placido Polanco. He will again be a part of
the Phillies bench.
Ricky Ledee ( .247 BA; 13 HR; 33 RBI) Started
off hot last season and threatened to take away the starting
center field job from Marlon Byrd.
But he tapered off at the end. Nonetheless, he has found
a home in Philadelphia and will continue to be a solid contributor
of the Phillies bench.
Chase Utley ( .239 BA; 2 HR; 21 RBI) Filled
in at second base for most of the second half, but lacked
effectiveness while he was in.
Called up from Triple A, he was a rookie last season and
will look to build off his performance last year.
And now for the Pitchers…
RHP Kevin Millwood ( 14-12; 4.01 ERA) Started
off to a blazing 7-1 start but ran out of gas as the season wore
on. By signing with
the Phillies as a free agent, Millwood will again be the ace of
the pitching staff. This
year features a trimmed down Kevin Millwood and he is ready to
improve upon last year’s performance. Capable of going deep into
games, the team will depend on him to eat up innings in order to
preserve the bullpen late in the season. His performance will
decide whether the Phillies offer him a long-term contract next
season.
LHP Randy Wolf ( 16-10; 4.23 ERA) Another pitcher who
started off hot, but slumped in the second half. I was not too surprised
when Wolf started to taper off in the second half, ending his hot
streak that started in the second half of the 2002 season. I had a feeling that it
would come to an end some day.
But 2004 is a new year and several factors may have
hampered Wolf’s effectiveness, such as fatigue and pitch
selection. He must
mix up his fastball and off-speed pitches better to keep hitters
off-balance. Overall,
he should have a solid season, but first, I have to see it to
believe it.
RHP Vicente Padilla ( 14-12; 3.62 ERA) Padilla followed up a
great 2002 season with a mediocre 2003 season. A lack of consistency was
one of his problems as well as a disagreement with the coaching
staff on his pitch selection.
At one point, 90
percent of the pitches he threw were fastballs. The coaching staff wanted
him to integrate his off-speed pitches more. Padilla has great stuff
and he’s shown how dominant he can be in games, especially
against the Braves. The
key to Padilla is to get off to a good start in the first couple
of innings and by then he will be in cruise control for the rest
of the game.
LHP Eric Milton ( 1-0; 2.65 ERA) Pitched only 17 innings
for the Minnesota Twins last year due to injury. His addition to the
starting rotation gives Philadelphia another solid starter. He is apparently glad to
switch leagues because he does not have to face a DH anymore. I have not observed his
pitching style in detail, but I hope he will be a nice addition to
the rotation.
RHP Brett Myers ( 14-9; 4.43 ERA) Displayed a lot of
maturity in his starts last year allowing him to post an
impressive record. He was great in the first half, but also experienced a slump
in the stretch run. He
has a fiery temper, which he displayed last year during the 21
game road trip where he and pitching coach, Joe Kerrigan, got into
a shouting match. One of his problems on the mound was his tendency to
unconsciously tip off his pitches to the opposition. He and Joe Kerrigan worked on that after they settled their
differences. The team
hopes Myers can be just as effective as he was at the start of
last year.
I will only talk about some of the key
relievers in the bullpen:
LHP Rheal Cormier ( 8-0; 1.70 ERA) This
reliever was absolutely amazing last year. He put up the best numbers
of his career and he attributes it all to his work with pitching
coach, Joe Kerrigan. The
2-seam fastball was his most effective pitch and he features a
sinker as well. He
filled in as closer for Jose Mesa near the end of the season,
which shows how effective he was.
He will serve as the set-up man for Billy Wagner and will
be the team’s 3rd string closer… just in case. It is unrealistic to
expect another great season like last year for Cormier, but
anything near will do just fine.
RHP Tim Worrell ( 4-4; 2.87 ERA) Worrell filled in as
closer last year for the San Francisco Giant for the injured Robb
Nen, but this year he will pitch as a middle reliever. His stuff isn’t
explosive, but he gets the job done. He should provide solid
relief this year.
LHP Billy Wagner ( 1-4; 1.78 ERA) The Phillies gladly
snatched Wagner away from Houston, giving the team a premiere
closer. Unlike Jose Mesa, Wagner is more consistent and gets the job
done more efficiently. He
is mainly a fastball pitcher and should be a steady closer down
the stretch.
The pieces are in place for the Phillies this
season and if the team has great chemistry and shows better
consistency, the Phillies will bring a championship to the city of
Philadelphia. But they must make the postseason first or I’m afraid Larry
Bowa’s tenure as the Phillies manager will come to an end. A new, scenic ballpark
should help the Phillies along this season as there should be no
empty seats, unlike the Vet in past seasons. The team is expected to
win its division, but the Florida Marlins won’t be far behind
and the pesky Atlanta Braves always seem to contend no matter what
deficiencies they have. With
new players, a new stadium, and a chance for redemption, the 2004
season shall be one interesting ride.
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